Labor Markets, Education, Population

Project: The long-run effects of labour market polarisation

Project Duration

07/2016 - 12/2017 (finalized)

Commissioned by

Bertelsmann Stiftung

Project Team (RWI)

Prof. Dr. Ronald Bachmann (Chief), Merve Cim


Prof. Colin Green, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim


This research project analyses differences in longer-term labour market trajectories between workers characterised by different task profiles. In order to do so, we use German micro data (Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies, SIAB; BIBBBAuA Labour Force Survey) to investigate employment probabilities, labour market transitions into and out of unemployment as well as wage profiles. In the empirical analysis, we use the task approach which enables us to differentiate between routine tasks and non-routine (manual/cognitive) tasks. Jobs that are characterised by a high degree of routine intensity are more likely to be automated or offshored. We therefore investigate whether workers whose jobs are characterised by high routine intensity do worse on the labour market than workers who perform more complex tasks.

Selected project related publications

Discussion Papers


Bachmann, R., M. Cim and C. Green (2018), Long-run Patterns of Labour Market Polarisation: Evidence from German Micro Data . Ruhr Economic Papers #748. RGS, RWI. DOI: 10.4419/86788868 download

Electronic Publications


Bachmann, R., M. Cim, C. Green and J. Schwarzwälder (2018), Strukturwandel am Arbeitsmarkt: Keine technologische Arbeitslosigkeit aber höhere Dynamik. Zukunft Soziale Marktwirtschaft Policy Brief download