http://www.rwi-essen.de de-de RWI-Essen http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/images/rwi_logo.gif http://www.rwi-essen.de http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-288 Thu, 13 Sep 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-285 Fri, 24 Aug 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-284 Fri, 6 Jul 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-281 Sat, 30 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-275 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-276 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-240 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-239 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-277 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-271 Wed, 27 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-267 Fri, 1 Jun 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-266 Thu, 24 May 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-287 Sun, 6 May 2012 10:00:00 +0200 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelsonst-198 Wed, 1 Feb 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-315 Fri, 27 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 Using harmonized micro data, this paper investigates the job search methods of the unemployed in Europe. The analysis focuses on the importance of individual and household characteristics in this context, as well as on cross-country differences in Europe. Our findings suggest that both individual and household characteristics play an important role, with the latter being more decisive for women. However, even when controlling for these factors, remarkable differences remain between countries, which are associated with institutional characteristics at the country level. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/439/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-439 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen beitragsammelband-91 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen beitragsammelband-92 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 Drawing on individual-level mobility data from Germany between 1996 and 2009, this analysis econometrically investigates the determinants of automobile, public transit, and non-motorized travel against the backdrop of two questions: 1) Does gender play a role in determining the relative use of motor and non-motorized modes? 2) If so, how is this role mitigated or exacerbated by other socioeconomic attributes of the individual and the household? The results indicate that women display a relatively higher use of public transit and non-motorized modes coupled with a lower use of the car. However, it is important to qualify conclusions drawn with respect to the effect of gender given the range of confounding factors that mediate its impact, including age, the presence of children, the proximity to public transit, and the commute distance. The econometric estimates indicate that fare pricing and infrastructure provision have a significant influence on how individuals reach mode allocation decisions, and that women, in particular, stand to benefi t from the maintenance of an effi cient and dense public transportation network. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/436/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-436 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-311 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 In this paper, a law reform is evaluated that aimed at improving the corporate governance of German savings banks by tightening accountability and legal liability of outside directors. The causal effect of this reform on bank risk is identified by difference-in-differences and triple differences strategies. The estimation results show that savings banks subject to the reform increased capital and liquidity ratios. Hence, they have become less vulnerable to unexpected losses and liquidity shocks. This indicates that the low occurrence of outside director litigation reflects incentive effects of current liability regimes. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/435/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-435 Tue, 24 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-310 Tue, 24 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-195 Mon, 23 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 Mit der „Unstatistik des Monats“ werden der Berliner Psychologe Gerd Gigerenzer, der Dortmunder Statistiker Walter Krämer und RWI-Vizepräsident Thomas Bauer künftig nach Ende eines Monats sowohl jüngst publizierte Zahlen als auch deren Interpretationen hinterfragen. Den Anfang macht der im Dezember präsentierte „Armutsbericht 2011“ des Paritätischen Wohlfahrtsverbandes. Er impliziert, das Ruhrgebiet sei das neue Armenhaus der Republik, misst statt Armut aber... http://www.rwi-essen.de/presse/mitteilung/75/ RWI-Essen Mon, 23 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-308 Mon, 23 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-309 Mon, 23 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-194 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 This paper evaluates the R&D enhancing effects of two large public grant schemes for the German biotechnology industry (BioRegio, BioProfi le). Both grant schemes are organized in the form of contents for cooperation with the goal to foster the performance of innovative firms by their organization in research clusters. We apply a Difference-in-Differences estimation technique in a generalized linear model framework, which allows us to control for different initial regional conditions in R&D activity of the biotech sector. Our econometric findings support the view that winners generally outperform non-winning participants during the treatment period, thus indicating that exclusive funding as well as the stimulating effect of being a “winner” have positive effects on R&D activity in the short-term. Apart from this direct winner effect, for the non-winning participants no beneficial indirect effect due to a mobilization of local actors during the application phase could be detected. Finally, first attempts in estimating the long-term effects of the contests for cooperation approach on the winner regions’ R&D activity in the post-treatment period show ambiguous results. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/433/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-433 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 Interaction effects capture the impact of one explanatory variable x1 on the marginal effect of another explanatory variable x2. To explore interaction effects, socalled interaction terms x1x2 are typically included in estimation specifications. While in linear models the effect of a marginal change in the interaction term is equal to the interaction effect, this equality generally does not hold in non-linear specifi cations (AI, NORTON, 2003). This paper provides for a general derivation of interaction effects in both linear and non-linear models and calculates the formulae of the interaction effects resulting from HECKMAN’s sample selection model as well as the Two-Part Model, two regression models commonly applied to data with a large fraction of either missing or zero values in the dependent variable, respectively. Drawing on a survey of automobile use from Germany, we argue that while it is important to test for the significance of interaction effects, their size conveys limited substantive content. More meaningful, and also more easy to grasp, are the conditional marginal effects pertaining to two variables that are assumed to interact. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/434/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-434 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-193 Wed, 18 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-192 Wed, 18 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-307 Wed, 18 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 In Nordrhein-Westfalen hat die Konjunktur im Verlauf des Jahres 2011 spürbar an Schwung verloren. Dabei dürft e das Expansionstempo sogar etwas stärker nachgelassen haben als in Deutschland insgesamt. Dies liegt zum einen an der höheren Bedeutung der Stahlindustrie, die sensibler als andere Branchen auf Änderungen der gesamtwirtschaft lichen Aktivität regiert. Zum anderen schlägt die starke Ausrichtung der nordrhein-westfälischen Automobilindustrie auf europäische Märkte negativ zu Buche, da sich die Konjunktur im Euro-Raum stärker abkühlte als in anderen Regionen. Wir erwarten für 2011 ein Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 2,8% im Vergleich zu 3,0% in Deutschland insgesamt. Um die Jahreswende 2011/12 dürft e die wirtschaft liche Entwicklung nahezu stagnieren, weil von der Außenwirtschaft keine Impulse ausgehen. Dies schlägt auf die Investitionen durch, während die Konsumnachfrage angesichts der günstigen Beschäft igungssituation robust bleiben dürft e. Im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres dürft e die Expansion etwas an Fahrt gewonnen. Für den Jahresdurchschnitt erwarten wir, dass das nordrhein-westfälische Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 0,6% zu nehmen wird, also mit der gleichen Rate wie im Bundesdurchschnitt. Ungeachtet der schwächeren Konjunktur dürft e sich die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt nicht verschlechtern. Zwar kommt der Beschäft igungsaufb au zum Stillstand. Jedoch werden die Unternehmen Auslastungsschwankungen wohl eher durch Kurzarbeit und die Nutzung von Flexibilisierungsspielräumen in den Tarifverträgen ausgleichen. Aus demographischen Gründen dürft e die Arbeitslosigkeit noch leicht zurückgehen. Die Arbeitslosenquote geht voraussichtlich von 8,1% in Jahr 2011 auf 7,8% im Jahr 2012 und läge damit unverändert um einen Prozentpunkt höher als in Deutschland insgesamt. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/rwi-materialien/258/ RWI-Essen monographieautor-258 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 Since the introduction of its “open door” policy in the late 1970s, China has been attracting a growing share of FDI inflows and its international trade integration has advanced considerably. In this study, we take a closer look at the regional growth impact of the Chinese internationalization activity on labour productivity over the period 1979-2006. Our empirical analysis thereby extends the existing empirical literature by considering the likely spatial effects associated with Trade- and FDI-led growth in a dynamic error correction modelling framework. Our results indicate that, in the long-run relationship, regional labour productivity is indeed driven by direct and indirect spatial effects of FDI and trade activity next to further supply side factors such as the regional infrastructure equipment and human capital endowment. Similarly, in the short-run, changes in FDI activity and especially human capital variables are found to matter for the regional growth dynamics. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/432/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-432 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 We extend the well established link between structural change and estimated persistence from GARCH to stochastic volatility (SV) models. Whenever structural changes in some model parameters increase the empirical autocorrelations of the squares of the underlying time series, the persistence in volatility implied by the estimated model parameters follows suit. This explains why stochastic volatility often appears to be more persistent when estimated from a larger sample as then the likelihood increases that there might have been some structural change in between. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/431/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-431 Fri, 13 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-289 Thu, 5 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-305 Thu, 5 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-293 Thu, 5 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-283 Thu, 5 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-306 Thu, 5 Jan 2012 10:00:00 +0100 This paper examines the causal relationship between real GDP and energy consumption for 23 OECD countries from 1971 to 2009. Using recently developed panel econometric techniques the present paper takes into account structural breaks and cross-section dependence when analysing the energy consumption-growth nexus. The empirical results of this study indicate that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP and energy consumption, and the impact of real GDP on energy consumption is larger than vice versa. Furthermore, the empirical evidence of a dynamic panel error-correction model reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in both the short and long run. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/428/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-428 Fri, 30 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 This paper addresses the question to which extent the complementarity between education and training can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics, i.e. to individual, job and firm specific characteristics. The novelty of this paper is to analyze previously unconsidered characteristics, in particular, personality traits and tasks performed at work which are taken into account in addition to the standard individual specific determinants. Results show that tasks performed at work are strong predictors of training participation while personality traits are not. Once working tasks and other job related characteristics are controlled for, the skill gap in training participation drops considerably for off-the-job training and vanishes for on-the-job training. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/430/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-430 Fri, 30 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-177 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Society benefits on a large scale from improved medical care and pharmaceuticals. The prescription of pharmaceuticals, however, also carries risks such as the possibility of an increased risk of falls, which may lead to severe injuries and increased health expenditures associated with these injuries. This study investigates the influence of several fall risk increasing drugs (FRIDs) on the number of injuries of elderly persons using multivariate regression models. Routine data from the Techniker Krankenkasse (TK) of frail elderly persons aged ? 65 years is analyzed for the year 2009 by estimating count data models, in order to take the data generating process of the number of injuries into account. The results of the count data model are compared to those from logistic regressions, which is the default regression model in this field of research. The empirical results suggest that antidepressants, anxiolytics, hypnotics and sedatives, antiarrhythmics, and drugs from the Priscus-list have a significant positive effect on the number of injuries, while anti-hypertensives and anti-parkinsonian agents show no and neuroleptics a significant negative effect. As recurrent injuries are common, the analysis of the number of injuries rather than just the probability of having an injury provides a more informative analysis of FRIDs. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/426/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-426 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 This paper provides field evidence on (a) how price framing affects consumers’ decision to switch health insurance plans and (b) how the price elasticity of demand for health insurance can be influenced by policymakers through simple regulatory efforts. In 2009, in order to foster competition among health insurance companies, German federal regulation required health insurance companies to express price differences between health plans in absolute Euro values rather than percentage point payroll tax differences. Using individual-level panel data, as well as aggregated health plan-level panel data, we find that the reform led to a sixfold increase in an individual’s switching probability and a threefold demand elasticity increase. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/425/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-425 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 This paper analyzes the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to the dynamics of the labor market in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between economic upswings and downturns into composition effects and behavioral effects. We find that overall composition effects play a minor role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative over the course of the recession. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/424/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-424 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 With 2.7 billion people relying on woodfuels for cooking in developing countries, the dissemination of improved cooking stoves (ICS) is frequently considered an effective instrument to combat deforestation particularly in arid countries. This paper evaluates the impacts of an ICS dissemination project in urban Senegal on charcoal consumption using data collected among 624 households. The virtue of our data is that it allows for rigorously estimating charcoal savings by accounting for both household characteristics and meal-specific cooking patterns. We find average savings of 25 percent per dish. In total, the intervention reduces the Senegalese charcoal consumption by around 1 percent. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/427/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-427 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-176 Tue, 20 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 For 2012 RWI expects the real gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by only 0.6% following 3.0% growth during the current year. With this forecast, the institute is expressing more skepticism than for the September outlook, when an increase of 1% was still being predicted. The main cause of the worsened expectations is the continued deterioration of conditions in the international economic environment. A continuing upward trend in domestic demand will have a ... http://www.rwi-essen.de/presse/mitteilung/74/ RWI-Essen Tue, 20 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 In recent times DSGE models came more and more into the focus of forecasters and showed promising forecast performances for the short term. We contribute to the existing literature by analyzing the forecast power of a DSGE model including endogenous growth for the medium run. Instead of only calibrating the model we apply a mixture of calibrating and estimating using Bayesian estimation methods. As forecasting benchmarks we take the Smets-Wouters model (2007) and a VAR model. The evaluation of the forecast errors shows that the Medium-Term model outperforms the Smets-Wouters model with respect to some key macroeconomic variables in the medium run. Compared to the VAR model the Medium-Term model forecast performance is competitive. These results show that the forecast ability of DSGE models is also valid for the medium term. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/423/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-423 Tue, 20 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen sonstigepublikation-129 Mon, 19 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelsonst-197 Sat, 17 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-175 Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Das RWI startet einen neuen Konsumindikator. Er wertet Anfragen der Internet-Suchmaschine Google aus, um den privaten Konsum vorherzusagen. Der Indikator kann einen Wert zwischen 0 und 100 annehmen und beschreibt damit, welcher Prozentsatz der betrachteten Suchkategorien im jeweiligen Quartal ihren Anteil an den Gesamtanfragen gesteigert haben. Für das vierte Quartal prognostiziert der RWI-Konsumindikator einen deutlich... http://www.rwi-essen.de/presse/mitteilung/73/ RWI-Essen Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Using digitized texts scanned by Google and subjected to optical character recognition, I show that heteroskedasticity overtook heteroscedasticity as the preferred spelling in 2001 and has continued to dominate, except for 2005, up to 2008. The latest trends indicate that writers are moving toward the k variant. However, for words such as homoskedasticity, heteroskedastic, and homoskedastic, the corresponding spellings using c are still overwhelmingly dominant, albeit slowly shifting. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/422/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-422 Tue, 13 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-174 Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-199 Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Following the notion of skill-biased FDI flows from developed to less developed regions, high-skilled workers are likely to benefit from FDI to a larger extent. They earn a productivity advantage that potentially transfers into a skilled wage premium. This gives rise to distributional conflict that might turn into heterogeneous attitudes toward FDI inflows in line with skill. In this paper I study the effect of less developed countries’ skill compositions on the risk of expropriation. Not surprisingly, it turns out that the risk of expropriation decreases with a larger employment share of high-skilled workers. However, in a theoretical model, the effect is diminishing and even turns negative in the empirical investigation: if the relative supply of high-skilled labor is too large, the skilled wage premium turns negative despite the skill-bias of FDI. Then, high-skilled workers’ positive attitudes toward FDI vanish. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/420/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-420 Tue, 6 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 We investigate the effect of population aging on international factor flows in a political-economy framework. Political barriers to immigration in developed countries and insecure property rights in developing countries impede factor flows. Taking into account different generations’ conflicting attitudes towards immigration and expropriation, we explore how these policy barriers interact. We find that incentives to expropriate increase as more emigration from the developing country takes place. Meanwhile, the industrialized country admits less immigrants as less capital is allocated to the developing country. Furthermore, the effects of population aging on international factor flows are considerably underestimated if one does not take into consideration the interactions between immigration and expropriation policies. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/421/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-421 Tue, 6 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen sonstigepublikation-122 Mon, 5 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 This paper uses concurrently and – for the first time – retrospectively reported life satisfaction from the 1984 to 1987 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel to study the importance of different comparison standards for the empirical correlation of unemployment and subjective life satisfaction. It is found that unemployed individuals do not only report significantly lower concurrent satisfaction, but also recall reduced satisfaction from past unemployment well, and retrospectively upgrade their past satisfaction scores. Therefore, the short-term negative effects of unemployment on individual life satisfaction reported in the literature so far are likely underestimated. At the same time, the empirical findings cast doubts on the usefulness of subjective life satisfaction for the precise quantification of welfare effects because of changing comparison standards which greatly limit the intertemporal comparability of the data. For this reason, such data also appear to be of limited use for monitoring long-term economic or social development. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/419/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-419 Mon, 5 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 This paper analyses the link between the VDAX as a proxy for European financial uncertainty and the number of terror incidents in Western Europe. Considering data of the Global Terrorism Database, the number of terror incidents does – on average – not affect financial uncertainty. In contrast, based on a behavioral model of terrorism motivated by Schmid and de Graaf (1982), lagged financial uncertainty contains information for the risk of terror events. Estimation results of the negative binominal quasi maximum likelihood count data model confirm an inverse impact of lagged financial uncertainty on terrorism. Furthermore, empirical evidence leads to the conclusion of average lead time for terror incidents of 6 month. These results are potentially important for terror prevention. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/418/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-418 Mon, 5 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelsonst-196 Mon, 5 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Over the last two decades, temporary employment has gained importance in the European Union. The implications of this development for the health of the workforce are not yet established. Using a unique individual-level data set for 27 European countries, this paper evaluates whether temporary employment is interrelated with self-assessed health. We find pronounced differences in self-assessed health by employment status across European countries. Furthermore, in the EU full-time permanent employed workers report the best health, followed by temporary and part-time employed workers. These differences largely vanish, when taking into account the potential endogeneity between employment status and self-assessed health. However, repeated temporary contracts have a significant negative impact on health. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/416/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-416 Fri, 2 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure the latest price movements in different real estate markets in Germany and forecast near-term price developments. Therefore we construct hedonic house price indices based on real estate advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24. Then, starting with a naive AR(p) model as a benchmark, we investigate whether VAR and ARDL models using additional macroeconomic information can improve the forecasting performance as measured by the mean squared forecast error (MSFE). While these models reduce the forecast error only slightly, forecast combination approaches enhance the predictive power considerably. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/417/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-417 Fri, 2 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-172 Thu, 1 Dec 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-198 Wed, 30 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-206 Fri, 25 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen elektronischepublikation-35 Fri, 25 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-197 Wed, 23 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 We use 2009 Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) data to link institutional arrangements in OECD countries to the disparity in reading, math, and science test scores for migrant and native-born students. We find that achievement gaps are larger for those migrant youths who arrive later and for those who do not speak the test language at home. Institutional arrangements often serve to mitigate the achievement gaps of some migrant students while leaving unaffected or exacerbating those of others. For example, earlier school starting ages help migrant youths in some cases, but by no means in all. Limited tracking on ability appears beneficial for migrants‘ relative achievement, while complete tracking and a large private school sector appear detrimental. Migrant students‘ achievement relative to their native-born peers suffers as educational spending and teachers‘ salaries increase, but is improved when examination is a component of the process for evaluating teachers. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/414/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-414 Wed, 23 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 This article analyses a game where players sequentially choose either to become insiders and pick one of finitely many locations or to remain outsiders. They will only become insiders if a minimum distance to the next player can be assured; their secondary objective is to maximise the minimal distance to other players. This is illustrated by considering the strategic behaviour of men choosing from a set of urinals in a public lavatory. However, besides very similar situations (e.g. settling of residents in a newly developed area, the selection of food patches by foraging animals, choosing seats in waiting rooms or lines in a swimming pool), the game might also relevant to the problem of placing billboards attempting to catch the attention of passers-by or similar economic situations. In the non-cooperative equilibrium, all insiders behave as if they cooperated with each other and minimised the total number of insiders. It is shown that strategic behaviour leads to an equilibrium with substantial underutilization of available locations. Increasing the number of locations tends to decrease utilization. The removal of some locations which leads to gaps can not only increase relative utilization but even absolute maximum capacity. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/415/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-415 Wed, 23 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen beitragsammelband-81 Tue, 22 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-171 Mon, 21 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Labour supply is determined by two factors: the participation of workers in the labour market (extensive margin), and the number of hours supplied by those working (intensive margin). Based on the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS), we analyse which margin is more decisive in determining overall labour supply in 24 Member States. The results reveal large diff erences between countries, even after controlling for composition effects in terms of socio-demographic and household characteristics. In addition to individual labour supply, our focus is on differences between EU Member States concerning household labour supply. Joint determination of the number of hours worked between spouses can be observed for dual-income couples in Austria, the Netherlands and Spain. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/413/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-413 Thu, 17 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-170 Tue, 15 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Obesity and overweight are linked to diseases that cost society a significant amount of resources. While behavior modification can reduce the problem, instigating such lifestyle changes is an uneasy task. One potential way to reduce the problem is through the use of financial incentives. In this survey, we review the available evidence with a significant emphasis on studies that yield credible estimates of the effect of financial incentives on weight loss. We find that the scientific literature on the subject has not yet satisfactorily settled whether such a mechanism is effective at eliciting the desired behavioral and health outcomes. We therefore advocate a rigorous large-scale randomized experiment to provide reliable estimates of the effect. http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/412/ RWI-Essen diskussionspapier-412 Mon, 14 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen artikelref-299 Sat, 12 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 Gemeinsame Pressemitteilung von ImmobilienScout24 und RWI. Die Zeit der großen Preissteigerungen im Markt für Wohnimmobilien ist zunächst vorbei. In den nächsten Monaten werden die Preise für Bestandsimmobilien bundesweit zu einem großen Teil stagnieren. Nur im Neubaubereich ist http://www.rwi-essen.de/presse/mitteilung/72/ RWI-Essen Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen elektronischepublikation-31 Wed, 9 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen sonstigepublikation-118 Mon, 7 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-168 Mon, 7 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100 http://www.rwi-essen.de/ RWI-Essen projektbericht-169 Mon, 7 Nov 2011 10:00:00 +0100