Ruhr Economic Papers

Ruhr Economic Papers #385

Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany

by Nolan Ritter and Colin Vance

RWI, 11/2012, 24 S./p., 8 Euro, ISBN 978-3-86788-440-2 DOI: 10.4419/86788440

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Abstract

Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into fewer cars at the national level. Beyond identifying several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the price for fuel, the supply of public transit, and land use features, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socioeconomic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that could be partially offset by substantial increases in fuel prices.

JEL-Classification: C25, D10, R41

Keywords: Car ownership; demographic change; Germany; multinomial logit; simulation

Published as:

Ritter, N. and C. Vance (2013), Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 50 : 74-85.

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