RWI Materialien

RWI Materialien 112

Konjunkturbericht Nordrhein-Westfalen 2017

by Roland Döhrn, György Barabas, Angela Fuest and Phillip Jäger

03/2017, 26 S./p., 10 Euro, ISBN 978-3-86788-790-8

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Abstract

Gross domestic Product (GDP) in North Rhine-Westphalia is estimated having grown by 1.4% in 2016, after a stagnation in the year before. Growth is still drag by weak production in the manufacturing sector whereas value added in the service sector and in construction grew strongly. The GDP rate is lower than in Germany as a whole, however, the gap to the German rate has narrowed. The economic upswing can be expected to continue in 2017, but growth will be somewhat smaller since the stimulus resulting from the decline of the crude oil price is phasing out. Growth is mainly supported by domestic demand whereas foreign demand remains weak. In consequence, industry will still lack momentum. GDP is forecasted to increase by 1.0%; the difference to the 2016 rate mainly reflects a working day effect. Unemployment will probably grow during the forecast horizon since the asylum seekers having arrived in Germany since mid-2015 increasingly enter the labor market, but are difficult to integrate.

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