Press Office

Economic upswing continues to be moderate

Press release from 12 March 2014

Economic policy is expected to facilitate the current upswing. While monetary policy is likely to remain expansionary, fiscal policy in advanced economics is expected to become less restrictive.

However, current disparities in economic dynamics in emerging and advanced economies will persist. In particular, advanced economies that have finalized their adjustment process in the aftermath of the financial crisis will benefit from improved conditions. In these economies, however, monetary policy will become more restrictive, which will start to dampen aggregate demand in the next year.

The Euro area is expected to further recover from the sovereign debt crisis. However, economic activity in European countries that have been hit by the crisis is likely to remain inhibited because structural adjustment has not been completed yet. Economic dynamics in emerging markets are expected to increase only slightly. Whereas these countries further benefit from an enhanced demand from advanced economies, factors which weaken economic conditions will persist.

Finally, production of the world economy (weighted by countries’ GDP share in terms of purchasing power parity) will rise by 3.4% this year and by 3.7% in the next year. This leads to an increase of international trade in goods by 4.0% (2014) and 5.3% (2015).

(published in „RWI Konjunkturberichte“, No. 1/2014)

Contact:       

Prof. Dr. Roland Döhrn, Tel.: 0049-201-8149-262,
Katharina Brach (press office), Tel.: 0049-201-8149-244,

Key Data of the Forecast from March 2014
2013 to 2015

2013

2014f

2015f

Gross Domestic Product1, change in % 0,4 1,9 2,1
Employed persons2, in 1 000 41 841 42 180 42 220
Unemployed3, in 1 000 2 950 2 885 2 930
Unemployment rate3,4, in % 6,9 6,7 6,7
Consumer prices, change in % 1,5 1,2 1,6
Labor unit costs5, change in % 2,1 1,3 1,4
Fiscal balance 6,
in billion Euro
in % of GDP

0,3
0,0

0
0,0

8
0,3
Current account balance7, in billion Euro 201,0 216 224

RWI calculations based on data provided by the German Statistical Office, Deutsche Bundesbank, and the Federal Labor Office. - 1In real terms. - 2Domestic. - 3National definition. - 4In % of civilian labor force. - 5Compensation per employee divided by real GDP per employed person. -  6National Accounts definition. - 7Balance of payment definition. - fForecast.

Key Data of the International Forecast
2013 to 2015; changes over the previous year in %

2013

2014f

2015f

Gross Domestic Product1

 

 

 

Euro area

-0,4 1,1 1,5
United Kingdom 1,8 2,6 2,5
USA 1,9 2,7 3,0
Japan 1,6 1,4 1,4
Advanced Economies 1,1 2,0 2,3
Consumer prices      
Euro area 1,4 0,9 1,3
United Kingdom 2,6 2,0 2,3
USA 1,5 1,8 2,6
Japan 0,4 2,0 1,7
Advanced Economies 1,3 1,5 2,0
World Output2      
based on Purchasing Power Parities 2,8 3,4 3,7
based on market exchange rates 2,1 2,8 3,1
World trade3 2,0 4,0 5,3
Oil Price (Brent, US-Dollar/b)4 108,2 109,2 111,5
Exchange Rate (US-Dollar/Euro)4 1,33 1,38 1,38

RWI calculations based on OECD, IMF, Eurostat and national data. - 1In constant prices. -2Weighted average of the countries forecasted in this report. -3Goods, in prices and exchange rates of 2005. - 4Annual averages.- fForecast.

 

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