Ruhr Economic Papers

Ruhr Economic Papers #880

Are German National Accounts Informational Efficient?

by Roland Döhrn

UDE, RWI, 11/2020, 19 S./p., 8 Euro, ISBN 978-3-96973-019-5 DOI: 10.4419/96973019



National accounts are subject to major revisions. To improve the reliability of the first release data, it is important to know whether these revisions show systematic patterns, or in other words, whether national accounts are informational efficient in the sense that they incorporate all information available in the data. This paper tests three dimensions of informational efficiency: weak efficiency, strong efficiency, and Nordhaus efficiency. The tests on weak efficiency find systematic patterns in the revisions. Tests on strong efficiency, however, do not provide a clear-cut picture, which kind of information can be used to reduce the extent of revisions. Finally, the tests on Nordhaus efficiency indicate that the revisions do not follow a time path.

JEL-Classification: C82, E01, E66

Keywords: National account; data revision; informational efficiency