Ruhr Economic Papers

Ruhr Economic Papers #327

Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations

by Ansgar Belke, Matthias Goecke and Martin Guenther

University of Duisburg-Essen, 04/2012, 29 S./p., 8 Euro, ISBN 978-3-86788-376-4 DOI: 10.4419/86788376



A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction. We call the latter a “play” area – analogous to mechanical play and implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is then estimated based on quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. For some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradable sectors we fi nd significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports.

JEL-Classification: F14, C51

Keywords: Exchange rate movements; play-hysteresis; modelling techniques; switching/spline regression; export demand