RWI Materialien

RWI Materialien 134

Auswirkungen der COVID-19 Epidemie auf die chinesische Wirtschaft – eine erste Abschätzung

by Roland Döhrn

02/2020, 19 S./p., 8 Euro, ISBN 978-3-86788-974-2



In China the number with the new Coronavirus infected further increases. The Chinese government tries to prevent the spreading of the infection and has bolted the strongest affected province of Hubei of the rest of the country. This paper tries a first evaluation of the economic consequences of the epidemic for China. It builds up on the experiences from SARS epidemic and discusses possible transmission canals. The estimate of the effects on the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) is based on in the composition of the economy by industries, on the economic importance of the province of Hubei, and on an assessment will affect individual industries. It estimates a damping effect on the increase of the GDP in the first quarter in 2020 of about 4 percent points. Considering that travels of Chinese abroad are forbidden practically, the negative effect is reduced to about 2.5 percent points, as less income is spent abroad. The economic damage in the first quarter would thus amount to around 405 billion yuan or just under 54 billion euros. This is a rather conservative estimate, assuming that production activity is subordinated for about one month. With the duration of the restrictions the negative effects could increase overproportionate because an increasing number of production sites suffer from missing supplies.