RWI Schriften 73

Macroeconometric Models and European Monetary Union

edited by Stephen G. Hall, Ullrich Heilemann and Peter Pauly

Berlin: 01/2004, 224 S./p., 71 Euro, ISBN 3-428-11398-5


This volume contains the contributions of a conference dealing with the consequences of the European Monetary Union for the macroeconometric modelling of the Euro area, which took place in Essen on November 17 and 18, 2000. The objective of the conference was to give an overview of the status and development of the econometric modelling in the Euro area based on a concentrated exchange of information and discussion among a comparatively small group of scientists. At the end of the conference the participants were convinced that the discussions including a great variety of theoretical, methodical and factual aspects from the producers' as well as the consumers' perspective will not fail to have a certain impact on the future development of macroeconometric modelling.
Once more it became clear, however, that an ideal way to a solution of the problems is still not in sight. The future development will be characterized by a plurality of approaches and models. Thus trends continue which have had a more or less strong, durable or temporary influence on the model landscape since the emergence of the monetarist revolution, the "rational expectations" or the "real business cycle"-models; their influence was clearly perceptible during the conference. We hope that the results and reported experiences will soon be included in the experts' discussions. We are still at the beginning of the theoretical and empirical exploration of the macroeconomic development of the Euro area, it is not always clearly perceptible what is transitory and what is permanent, and this openness should facilitate the reception of the experiences and results which have been presented.
The idea for this event was developed in the course of the Project LINK, our special thanks go to Professor Dr. Stephen Hall, London Business School, Professor Dr. Ullrich Heilemann, RWI, and Professor Dr. Peter Pauly, University of Toronto. One of the highlights of the conference was the participation of the nobel prize winner Professor Dr. Lawrence Klein - pioneer and Nestor of macroeconometric modelling - who, as his contribution shows, is following up the creation of the European Monetary Union with critical interest. The meeting was organized by Mrs. Hiltrud Nehls, graduated economist, she was supported by Mrs. Claudia Lohkamp. The editorial work was done by the very experienced Mr. Joachim Schmidt, who was assisted by Mrs. Anette Herma- nowski. The organization of individual meetings was taken over by the editors of this volume and by Professor Dr. Bert Hickman, Stanford University, Professor Dr. Jean-Louis Brillet, INSEE, Paris, and Professor Dr. Manfred Deistler, Technical University Vienna. The institute would like to thank all of them as well as the speakers and those who participated in the discussions.
Last not least we have to mention the "Gesellschaft der Freunde und Förderer des RWI"; without their generous financial support this event would not have been possible.